State of Mine(d) – How could 16% of registered Republican voters choose our next president? Like this…
I have long considered my current State to be a miniature replica of the United States. Well, at least socio-politically.
See… In each election I have witnessed, the percentage of voters who vote for a given GOP candidate will, overall, determine – well, not determine… let’s say – Predict the overall victor (electorally). That is… the number of them which deviates from the mean of 60%. If a GOP candidate’s total vote percentage is under 60%, then it is highly likely a democrat will be in office. (I believe it was 57-58% in the Obama years.)
The social aspect is easy and rather uninteresting…
If you look at our State Census data, our demographics… we are virtually a miniature of the entire United States population. Well, the poorer, more rural areas… you know… those gerrymandered districts throughout the U.S. abusing a law that was meant to balance the voices of rural versus urban? And when more people, per capita, farmed?
|PERCENTAGE OF…||KENTUCKY||THE UNITED STATES|
|College Educated (Bachelor degree or higher)||22.3%||29.8%|
The story is more interesting politically for 3 reasons:
- Only 41% of voters in my State are registered Republican. Versus 51% Democrat.
- My State’s voter laws:
- Voting in primary elections (i.e. choosing party candidates) is limited solely to those registered in each party.
- Yet, we always, predominantly, (around 60%) vote Republican in national and Presidential elections?
The gist is that, while always voting predominantly Republican, well, at least in National elections… the people in my State, as registered Democrats, ultimately, lack the ability to actually choose their presidential or representative(s) candidate.
This is why, well, I never really blame my co-workers, friends, acquaintances, neighbors, and family members for voting for someone like Trump. It’s not like they had a real choice. In fact, I’m fairly certain more than a few, that are registered Republican, did not vote for Trump in the primaries.
In the end, this State of mine, well, they are creatures of habit.
So, it was no surprise that Trump support stickers and yard signs didn’t appear until after the primaries. What choice did they have really? I mean, they aren’t going to vote for one of those leftie, socialist, Democrats, right? (Well, unless it is a local election and the choice directly affects them…)
Thus, you have the logical, reasonable, justification for my statements in various comment boxes on the internet stating that, “…the people in my state would vote for a Gecko if the GOP saw fit to provide one as a candidate… well, that, and if they recognized him.”
Now, let’s put on our geek glasses, and do the Primary Math:
Here is a breakdown of my State’s primary election stats from 2016 for ‘voter turnout’:
|Others?||Yes, there were others listed, but, really? I mean, Really?|
We’ll ignore, for now, the discrepancies obvious between the Voter Registration statistics provided via an .xls file on my State Government website, versus the reported numbers in the voter turnout for 2016:
(3315400 minus 3243078 equals 72,322 unaccounted for *registered* voters… eh, probably just an estimation error… *ahem*)
And… NOW moving on to the actual 2016 election results:
So… if the total, registered voters in my state are:
Out of 3315400 Registered Voters…
- 1685065 were democrat (51%)
- 1352661 were republican (41%)
And, despite the fact that, out of the total presidential votes cast: 1924130…
- Trump won 63% of the vote?
- If we assumed all those who voted for Trump were registered Republican? That would mean a really high turnout: 93%?? (Um… not really, turncoat, fake, dems played their part…)
- Yet, in the primaries… only 16% of the registered Republicans actually voted?
Hmm… See, no choice really… I mean, can you imagine the Conservative, Christian, God-fearing existential crises? Vote Republican. Or, Don’t Vote at all? (Important to note? Johnson garnered about 72K votes. Perhaps those are the missing voters? *ahem*)
Now, I’m no statistical genius. In fact, statistics is the bane of my existence. It is used, far to often, to justify and conflagrate a host of ills (stereotypes and agendas, oh my). However, when used properly?
Stats will always show trends… that hint at Truths.
Stats give us a clue as to where to look for more information.
Yet, they are not the end-all-be-all of science.
Me? I’m going to continue pondering these numbers… because one thing I am attuned to, innately and inherently? Patterns, trends, and a general lack of ‘order’.
I urge you to do the same in your State.
 Now, well, it’s more ‘rich’ vs. ‘poor’. Yes, even in school districts. I suspect school redistricting was what helped in gerrymandering (funding is affected by it too…). Every time my city ‘re-districted’ for ‘race’? Well, certain schools suddenly got poorer… and blacker. (I will leave someone else to write about this subject… have at it, my dear…)
 Makes sense, sort of… and is why I switched to registered Democrat from ‘Independent’ after G.W. won in 2000. (It was time to pick a side.)
 …they don’t care when, just as long it is in the current platform and agenda
 Yes, the irony of those competing, and contradictory beliefs is lost on my fellow State citizens. I figured, a long time ago, that the only thing important was they could choose… for everyone else.
 Remember, in my State voters can only vote in the primaries for the parties in which they are registered.
 The only other interesting thing about this stat? There are almost 200K more registered female voters.